Employment growth suggests the resilience of U. S. Recovery

The U.S. economy showed signs of kicking the speed in March, adding 216,000 jobs and generate Obama to announce finally turned a corner.

The president and his Democratic colleagues said the last employment report Friday, and an unemployment rate that has fallen slightly to 8.8 percent, as proof that their policies, such as stimulus spending and reducing payroll, worked. All this, they explained, could become ammunition in their confrontation with House Republicans, who spoke of the deep cuts in the federal budget and threatened to stop government.

An emboldened Mr. Obama spoke of the political implications before several hundred workers at a center of United Parcel Service shipping in Landover, Maryland

"If these budget negotiations break down, we could end up having to quit the government, just when the economy begins to recover," Obama told workers. "So, given the encouraging news we received today on the job, what would be the height of irresponsibility to stop our economic momentum because of the same old Washington politics."

administration officials hit the same points over and over on Friday. The private sector added an average of 188,000 jobs over the first three months of 2011, and 1.8 million jobs since the beginning of the recovery. March was the 12th consecutive month of growth in jobs in the privatesector and the stock market rose slightly on the report from the Labor Department.

Manufacturing continued its improbable - comeback in March, adding 17,000 jobs - it is still modest. Health care added 37,000 jobs in the month, and professional and business services added 78,000, while 37 percent of this increase came from temporary help. Employment figures for January and February were revised slightly higher as well.

Yet many of Mars is also available in more than a few warning signs that the economy has not been cured of all ailments. The ranks of Americans who have been unemployed for 27 weeks or more are very painful, more than six million. And the labor force has declined steadily since the recession began, to the point that just 64.2 percent of adults are either in the work force or looking for work. This is the lowest rate of participation in a quarter century.

For several months now, economists have expressed the hope that unemployed Americans have heart for signs of new hires and re-enter the labor market. This does not occur in March,the participation rate remained unchanged.

"There is still a very inhospitable market for the unemployed," said Heidi Shierholz, an economist at the liberal Economic Policy Institute. "We have five unemployed workers for each opening, and these are desperate times."

The average workweek, also remained unchanged at 34.3 hours and average hourly earnings remained static. These indicators show an economy on the demand for soft hints of deflation and little upward pressure on wages. Real earnings of the Brookings Institution noted on Friday, fell 1.1 percent last year.

"The oversupply of labor at very high it is unlikely we will see a significant acceleration in wage rates anytime soon," Joshua Shapiro, MFR Inc. economist, said Friday morning.

Although the overall unemployment rate fell to 8.8 percent - 8.9 percent in February and a peak of 10.1 per cent in late 2009 - the rate remains particularly high for blacks, 15 , 5 percent and for Latinos, 11.3 percent. (In 2007, black unemployment was 8.3 percent and was 5.6 percent for Latinos.)

In addition, localgovernments are experiencing a month-long purge. Localgovernments have paid 416,000 jobs since employment peaked in September 2008, and dropped 15,000 jobs in March.

Teenage unemployment remains off the cards and the long-term unemployment is only a tenth of a point below its historic high, "said Heather Boushey, senior economist at the Center for American Progress, a liberal group. "Although, after years of watching things get worse,it is good to see increasing overall employment."

The tension between the two views of Ms. Boushey's economy, its deep problems and signs of hope can be seen in a Bureau of Labor Statistics summary that breaks the economy into 16 sectors. It shows construction workers with a rate of 20 percent unemployment, and leisure and hotel employees to 13.2 percent. Yet the unemployment rate declined in 13 of the 16 sectors since March 2010.

It also poses a political enigma of the Federal Reserve, whose governors will meet in April to review their policy interest rates. How the council for the economy is the economic engine is finally starting to purr, in this case,some argue for "overshoot and rate hike later this year? Or weaknesses are sufficiently pronounced that it is wise to keep flooding the engine with cheap money?

The administration believes that Obama is too early to raise rates. Recoveries from financial shocks as severe as that of 2008 are often long and slow, and they argue against risking another failure.

Another issue is that augurs mid-term future. Jobs continue to grow in the spring, and with enough force - 300,000 permonth, for example - to reduce significantly the rate of unemployment? As Ms. Shierholz said, if the economy added 200,000 jobs permonth, it will be 2019 before reaching the employment rate that preceded the recession.

Many economists speak of optimism coming months. "The private sector of the economy was the locomotive pulling the economy forward," said Sung Won Sohn, an economics professor at California State University, Channel Islands. "Exports record, better than expected sales detail and increased business capital spending are good news. "

But some grow wary after that. The storm clouds are numerous international - debt problems dramatically in Europe, uprisings sweeping the oil-rich Middle East, and many crises in Japan. The fear is that these evils can press the consumption and business confidence.

"The first half of this year will be the best job market we will see in all this expansion," said David Levy Jerome Levy Forecasting the Center. "After that, and looking toward 2012, the situation is doubtful."

Fornow, the economy of the United States confront global storms last month and even acquired a number of jobs in good health. Austan Goolsbee, chairman of the President's Council of Economic Advisers, sounded content to stick with it fornow. "We're not quite know the answer" to the global turmoil, "he said. "For now, it's a good sign that you've heard in March that seemed to hit on consumer confidence and yet it did not slow the engine."